As we discussed in last month’s newsletter, we are in an intense seller’s market right now – so much so that it is not uncommon for new listings to get multiple offers on the first day.
The Cromford Market Index is an index/chart that indicates whether we are in a buyer’s or seller’s market, tracked on a weekly basis. A score of 100 on the index is an even market, no advantage to buyer or seller. A score below 100 is a buyer’s market, a score above 100 is a seller’s market. The Cromford dashboard below is showing the Phoenix metro area at an historic high of 513.6, clearly a strong seller’s market. Why? Because the demand index is 18% above normal and the supply index is 77% below normal. Supply will not start going up until demand drops below normal, which is the yellow zone on the chart.
Active inventory remains dismally low - not because people are not listing homes, but because buyer demand is so high. So, what is driving demand? Migration. Maricopa County is the FASTEST GROWING COUNTY IN THE COUNTRY. The following graphic shows some demographics about Arizona migration. Inbound migration is outpacing outbound 61.6% to 38.4%. Strikingly, 70% of the inbound migration is in the 55+ age range, which makes sense since AZ is still one of the top destinations for retirees. This means that we are unlikely to see a decrease in demand in our active adult communities anytime soon.
So, are we in a bubble? Prices are going up at a pretty dramatic rate like they were in 2005-2006.
As you can see from this chart, there was an impressive gap between the supply and demand indexes in April of 2005 before the market shifted, but there are a few differences worth noting between then and now. In 2005 and 2006, there was a lot of new home construction throughout the valley, most of it speculative (meaning no signed buyer contracts). There is comparatively little new home construction happening in the valley currently, and almost no speculative building. Mortgage interest rates are at historic lows and inbound migration is strong. It is unlikely that we are in a bubble, but if buyer demand starts to subside, supply will start to increase… and maybe, just maybe, we will get back into a more balanced buyer/seller market.
BINSR- Residential Buyer Inspection Notice and Seller’s Response
Buyer's Inspection Notice and Seller's Response is a form in a residential real estate transaction known as the BINSR.
Therefore, the BINSR is an addendum to the Arizona Association of Realtors Residential Purchase Contract. This allows the Buyer to request repairs and the Seller to respond.
Buyer Inspections and Investigation Completed
- First, the buyer has completed the inspection process on all desired items and now has several options. For instance, the Buyer can choose to accept the property as is without any repairs, and they will continue proceeding forward with the purchase. Or, they are disapproving of the property and canceling the contract. With this in mind, another option is for the buyer to request repairs. Consequently, this gives the seller the opportunity to correct some of the disapproved items. Accordingly, the buyer lists the desired repairs on the front page of the BINSR.
- By the way, a buyer can choose not to have an inspection done. In this case, the Buyer will notify the Seller of this election and sign the appropriate space on the second page of the BINSR, essentially proceeding with the purchase. It is not recommended that a buyer waive an inspection as it protects both buyer and seller against future claims.
- Second, once the Buyer has given the Seller an opportunity to correct disapproved items, the Seller can respond in several different ways. The response could include repairing all, some, or none of the items on the list. Typically, this is done within 5 days of the Seller receiving the BINSR.
- Third, if the Seller does not acquiesce to correcting all items the Buyer did not approve of, the Buyer can elect to cancel the contract. Also, the Buyer can accept the Seller's response to the BINSR. Thereupon, the Buyer agrees to close escrow without the Seller correcting those items not agreed about in writing.
It’s important to realize - the Buyer's Inspection Notice and Seller's Response is not a tool to renegotiate a different purchase price. Be that as it may, there are times when both parties may agree to a credit in lieu of repairs at the close of escrow. This may be the case when the Buyer prefers to have his or her own contractor do the work or in a situation when the close of escrow has a short timeline.
Not All Realtors® Are Created Equal!
When it comes to quality of service, The Kolb Team does more for you!
- Our team knows the local active adult communities better than anyone else because all of us live, work, volunteer, and play in Sun Lakes.
- We have a full-time licensed real estate assistant to help with all steps of the transaction to make sure you don’t miss any costly deadlines, avoid delayed closings, and reduce your stress.
- We forge relationships with our clients, and we go the extra mile to help with signing and we even drive our clients to appointments and more.
- Unlike other agents, we return all phone calls and messages promptly.
- We have a vast network of trusted and time-tested vendors for everything you need to prepare your house for sale, including repairs, and we help coordinate it all even if you are out of the area.
- We offer the most competitive commission rates in Sun Lakes.
- Other agents might offer discounts and little service. We offer the most competitive rates and never discount our service.
To us you are more than a transaction. Experience the difference!
Recipe of the Month
Baked Crab Rangoons
One of our favorite appetizers! So easy, fast, and delicious!
- 6-oz flaked crab meat
- 4-oz cream cheese, softened (low fat is ok)
- 2 green onions, thinly sliced
- ¼ cup mayo (low fat is ok)
- 12 wonton wrappers
- Heat oven to 350ͦ F.
- Mix all ingredients except for wonton wrappers in a bowl.
- In mini muffin pan sprayed with cooking spray, place 1 wonton wrapper in each cup, extending the edges over the rim of the cup. Fill each with crab mixture.
- Bake 20 minutes or until wrapper edges are golden brown and mixture is heated through.
Buyers of the Month
- East Coast buyers looking for a renovated home with a view of water, golf course, or both with a 3-car garage..
- Buyer from Tennessee looking for a home with a north facing backyard. Preferably updated. Would like to be in Oakwood..
- Buyer from Chandler looking for a single level home with 2 bedrooms. Is willing to do updates. Would like Phase 1 or Cottonwood..
- Buyers looking for a home with 2 bedrooms + a den and a casita. Would like a pool with a private backyard..
To Our Dear Readers: Now that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is becoming increasingly available and some things can maybe start getting back to normal soon, we wanted to return to a bit of our own “normal” this month – the Arizona Bucket List articles! For those who are new to our monthly newsletters, before the pandemic (and subsequent closures) hit, we featured some of our favorite places in AZ to visit – be it for a bite to eat, an afternoon of culture or sightseeing, or other treasures our beloved Grand Canyon State has to offer. Like us, we hope you’re excited to plan some adventures soon!
Arizona Bucket List - Organ Stop Pizza (Mesa, AZ)
We’ve all heard the phrase “dinner and a show”, and many of us – pre-pandemic – have been to such an event. But how many of you have ever enjoyed pizza while a gigantic organ designed to perform music that accompanied silent films is played live in the background?
Organ Stop Pizza, an Arizona landmark and attraction that draws hundreds of thousands of visitors (and hungry diners) per year, has a rich history! William P. Brown developed real estate in Phoenix and wanted to have a theater pipe organ in a pizza restaurant.
When the original location of Organ Stop Pizza (OSP) opened in 1972, pizza was well-liked but not nearly as popular across the United States as it is today – and no one had ever seen the dinner entertainment OSP was offering plus pizza in one place – but either in spite of those two facts or because of them together, Brown’s idea was an incredible success. In 1975, he opened another location, this time in Mesa, with a completely rebuilt and expanded pipe organ. While in Mesa too, this second OSP was not where the current one is. It’s amazing that Organ Stop Pizza is even still around, because in 1984, Brown hung up his proverbial apron and sold both restaurants. The Phoenix site’s organ was sold, the building demolished, and the land used for an office complex. Thankfully, the Mesa location was bought by longtime employees of the restaurant, the theater organ made more massive, and renovations at a much larger facility – the current one at Stapley Drive and Southern Avenue – were commissioned in 1995.
With an area twice the size to work with, not only could more pizza enthusiasts enjoy the “dinner and a show”, but the Mighty Wurlitzer could continue to grow… and grow it certainly did. We don’t want to spoil the fun by showing you a picture of what the organ currently looks like at OSP, but let’s just say there is more than one turbine involved to create the air pressure needed for it, and you really have to see this instrument in person to believe such a behemoth exists.
If you’ve been to Mesa’s Organ Stop Pizza, then you know the experience is like no other. OSP’s musical featured attraction, the Mighty Wurlitzer, has expanded over the years to become the best and biggest theater organ ever made and played. They offer more than just pizza, very reasonable prices for their menu items, and also more than just the typical music genre you conjure up when thinking of a pipe organ. At the time of this article being written, OSP is taking numerous precautions to protect guests and employees from exposure to COVID-19, including social distancing, required wearing of masks, and changing their policies to increase sanitization measures and/or eliminate certain high-touch items (such as condiments in disposable packets instead of shakers on the tables). While the food is great, the Mighty Wurlitzer is the draw, and the live organists perform starting 30 minutes after doors open for approximately 30-45 minutes, then take a break for about 10-15 minutes. Organ Stop Pizza really is a sight to see, hear, and experience!
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Chuck & Carol
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Real Estate Update
Wondering about your Neighbor’s Home Sales Price? Find out here to see what sold last month. The report is broken down by HOA, address, and floor plan (if the agent listed the model in MLS).