As most of you know, we at The Kolb Team are very proud to be a part of the Keller Williams family. Gary Keller and Joe Williams founded Keller Williams in Austin in 1983, and within 2 years, it was the largest real estate agency in the area. Since then, it has become Keller Williams Realty International and grown to be the largest privately-owned real estate company in the world with over 180,000 agents in 9 different countries. Twice a year, it hosts a convention for agents, and Gary always gives one of the keynote speeches.
His views on the current economy and how it is affecting the real estate market are always widely anticipated and respected. He is widely considered to be one of the top thought leaders and innovators in the industry, so we thought it would be beneficial to our clients and sphere to share some of his thoughts from his most recent address in September.
- The economy is probably going to take a couple years to recover, and possibly face a 7-8% unemployment rate for a period of time.
- The lower earning services sector, leisure and hospitality, and transportation and warehousing has suffered the highest impact of the COVID recession. Higher earning sectors have been impacted the least. The longer the lower earning services remain depressed, it will start to affect the next tier of services like manufacturing, which will then affect the next tier and so forth.
- GDP for 2020 will likely end up at -6%, the 5th worst year in US history.
- The people who buy the majority of homes (those over 35 years old) have been minimally affected by the current economy, keeping the real estate industry strong as a result.
- The Year-to-date (YTD) year-over-year (YoY) change in home sales is -4.7%. Keeping in mind that 2019 was a giant year in real estate, the market has remained relatively strong through this crisis.
- Nationally, in 2020, the average YoY change in home prices is +6.4%, and an impressive +17% in parts of the Phoenix market.
- From 1999-2016, there were only 4 months where there was less than 4 months of inventory (supply), and since 2017 we have had 20 months with that low of an inventory. Currently, the level is at 3.1 months nationally and less than 2 months here in Phoenix.
- Compared to last year, Phoenix prices are up a noteworthy 12.2%, while inventory is down 40.9%, so we are much more pronounced than other major markets.
- If the lower income renters start to miss rent payments, the investment property market may stumble, and this could increase inventory as investors start to dump properties that are not cash flowing.
- The national non-current rate (combination of delinquent and in foreclosure) is 7.2%, with only 3.6% at 90 days or more. The Arizona non-current rate is 5.7% - we have the 12th best rate in the country. Idaho has the lowest non-current rate at 3.8%, and Mississippi has the highest at 11.7%.
- High unemployment in the lower sectors WILL affect the higher earning sectors, and also WILL eventually slow the currently strong real estate market.
Inventory remains extremely low in the active adult communities here in Arizona, prices are rising, and there are plenty of active buyers! If you have been considering listing your home, now would be a good time to chat with us. If you are looking to purchase a home, be patient - the right one will come on the market eventually!
Creamy Butternut Squash Soup
October 2020 Recipe of the Month
With cooler temps just around the corner, we are definitely heading into soup weather! This is a delicious, tried-and-true recipe from our kitchen to yours.
1 stick of butter
1 large onion, chopped
2 pounds butternut squash, peeled & seeded, then cubed (1-2 inches each)
3 cups chicken broth
1 cup of heavy cream
1 tablespoon of sherry
Salt and freshly ground pepper
Chives, snipped (for garnish)
- In a large pot, melt the butter, then cook the onion and squash in it for about 5 minutes. Add the chicken broth, cover, and cook for an hour (until squash is soft).
- Puree in a countertop blender or with an immersion / hand blender. Be careful of hot soup splatters! If a countertop blender was used, return to the pot. Add cream and sherry, and salt and pepper to taste. Warm through and serve with snipped chives on top.
Think like a proton.⚛ Always positive.
Pauline Weaver, An Arizona Pioneer (History of AZ Series)
Last month was the premiere installment of our ‘History of Arizona’ series. We hope you enjoyed learning about the state’s first inhabitants as much as we did. Indigenous peoples such as the Hopi, Navajo, Hualapai, and Yavapai, have called this area of North America their home for thousands of years. Over two dozen federally recognized Native American tribes still do, and today, 25% of Arizona is Indian reservation land. Evidence has been found to suggest that 10,000 years ago, nomadic groups lived in the state. Read about Arizona’s first inhabitants, and be sure to check out the sources at the end for more in-depth information. This month, we’re sharing the story of Powell / Pauline Weaver, one of Arizona’s first pioneers.
Powell Weaver was born in 1797 in White County, Tennessee. Some consider him the first white settler in Arizona, even though his different occupations had him traveling and living in many places. He was best known as a trapper, military scout, and prospector, but he also was a mountain man, exploring wilderness areas of the Southwestern US.
In 1830, an expedition of almost 50 trappers brought him from Tennessee to the Rocky Mountains. Weaver set up his base of operations in Taos, New Mexico, where the Spanish-speaking locals changed his first name to a more familiar Paulino. English speakers then modified his Taos-given name to Pauline, a modification that stuck for the rest of his life.
Work as a trapper took him from Taos to California in 1831, and this was the first time he would visit Arizona. The following year, Pauline was married during a trip back to Taos, and within the next several years, he would marry a second time to a Native American from Arizona. Between this time period and 1845 (when he settled a ranch in California), it’s unclear where exactly his travels took him, but considering his life as a trapper (among other things), it’s estimated that he continued traveling for that line of work.
The Mormon Battalion, the US military’s only religious unit serving in a federal capacity, consisted of volunteer soldiers and was active from July 1846 – July 1847 (during the Mexican-American War). The group was in need of military scouts, as well as intermediaries to help with communication between the American Army and Native American tribes. Whether or not Weaver felt compelled to help because his mother was Cherokee, or simply felt it was his duty as an American, when General Kearney recruited him, he answered the call in 1846. For the next two decades, he would help when the Army needed, and in that time, he even served as Chief of Scouts during the Civil War’s Battle of Picacho Pass on April 15, 1862. Perhaps his involvement in this fight – the westernmost one in the Civil War – is why his name has adorned the Casa Grande ruins since 1832. Some admirer inscribed it there, and who it was continues to be a mystery, as Weaver used a simple “X” for his signature, so legend has it that he wasn’t the one.
Weaver gained the trust of Arizona’s indigenous people while he was a trapper and again during his time in the Mormon Battalion. In 1862, they took him to a point on the Colorado River, showing him where to find placer gold, which leads prospectors to successfully finding the good stuff. A gold rush followed, in the areas that would become La Paz and Yarnell, Arizona, respectively. Pauline, utilizing his experience as a scout and intermediary, tried to piece together an arrangement – basically a treaty – between the white men flooding in to cash in on the newly found gold source and the Native Americans. Unfortunately, due to several factors, the conflict between the two groups was unavoidable, leading to trust issues and aggression.
A few short years after the location of the placer gold was shared with him, Weaver was the victim of an attack outside of Prescott, Arizona. A war party shot him, and thinking he wasn’t going to survive, he launched into a traditional death song, which he actually learned from a different Native American tribe. This may have saved his life, as the warriors hadn’t heard of this ritual before, and decided to leave him be, as it seemed to them that he certainly couldn’t be in his right mind anymore. Hostilities between the white settlers and indigenous tribes continued, and when pioneers were settling in the Verde Valley, Pauline was again called upon to assist in the peace treaty process. Perhaps from the shooting a couple of years prior, or just simply old age, Weaver passed away on June 21, 1867. He was given full military honors during a burial service at Camp Verde, as his service records reflected his extraordinary contributions to the Army for almost 20 years.
When the Camp Verde military post was abandoned, Weaver’s remains were moved to California. His final resting place is in Prescott, Arizona after a 1929 campaign started by Sharlot Hall, a poet, and historian, who bestowed on him the title of Prescott’s First Citizen.
There are many spots in Arizona that are named after Pauline Weaver. How many of these are you familiar with?
- Weavers Needle (Superstition Mountains)
- Weaver Creek (Yavapai County)
- Weaver Mountain (Yavapai County)
- Weaver Mountains (Yavapai County)
- Weaver Peak (Yavapai County)
- Weaver Pass (La Paz County)
- Weaver Wash (La Paz County)
- Weaver, Arizona, now a ghost town (Yavapai County)
The Grand Canyon State is an amazing place to live with a rich history that we will continue to share with you in future newsletters.
Highlight on Local Business Owners
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Buyers of the Month
We have buyers who are ready, willing, and able to purchase and can’t find homes. If you or someone you know is thinking of selling and can accommodate, get in touch with us. We have your buyer.
- Colorado buyers looking for 2 BR plus den or casita with a view. Gated community.
- Washington State buyers looking for 2 BR in Cottonwood, Palo Verde, Ironwood, or Oakwood with great outdoor living space. A view is preferred. Some updates preferred. Pool ok.
- East Coast buyers looking for 2BR+ with extended 2.5 car garage. Would like a view.
- Washington State buyers looking for 2BR + in Cottonwood with a pool or room for a pool. Ideally would like to be on the golf course.
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Real Estate Update
Wondering about your Neighbor’s Home Sales Price? Find out here to see what sold last month. The report is broken down by HOA, address, and floor plan (if the agent listed the model in MLS).